How Accurate is DDMRP’s Explanation of Forecasting?
Forecast Basics

How Accurate is DDMRP’s Explanation of Forecasting?

Executive Summary A big part of DDMRP is its proponents stating that critics don’t understand DDMRP. In this article, we analyze what a DDMRP proponent has to say about forecasting. Introduction The following article, Forecasts, one of DDMRP’s best friends, was shared on LinkedIn and was written by David Villalobos on July 16, 2020. See…

How Do You Calculate a Forecast?
Forecast Basics

How Do You Calculate a Forecast?

Executive Summary Calculating a statistical forecast is far more straightforward to create than is often thought in practice. We cover the calculation of the forecast and what it means. Introduction How do you calculate a forecast is a common question that we receive. Because statistical forecasts, in developed countries at least, are generated by systems,…

Forecast Basics

How to Best Understand Measuring the Unconstrained Forecast

Executive Summary A constrained forecast is how most forecast error is measured. We cover the importance of the constrained forecast error. Introduction The topic of an unconstrained forecast is one of the most poorly explained concepts in supply chain planning. In this article, we seek to illuminate this topic and also bring up its relevance…

The Problem with POS Data for Supply Chain Forecasting
Forecast Basics

The Problem with POS Data for Supply Chain Forecasting

Executive Summary POS information is often proposed to be used to improve forecast accuracy. The evidence does not support that using POS does what vendors and consultants say it does. Introduction to Using POS Data for Forecasting Using POS data is a frequently proposed way to improve forecast accuracy. Software vendors that do demand sensing…

How to Understand What is an Outlier in Forecasting
Forecast Basics

How to Understand What is an Outlier in Forecasting

Executive Summary Outliers are easily identified in applications, but the question is how to deal with them. The questions to ask regarding when outliers should be removed. Introduction The question of what is an outlier and outlier removal is always a topic of keen interest on forecasting projects, which is why it is helpful to…

How do Complex Forecasting Methods Stack Up?
Forecast Basics

How do Complex Forecasting Methods Stack Up?

Executive Summary History shows some interesting insights as to complex methods. There are frequent misunderstandings regarding forecastability, which leads to the misuse of naive methods. Introduction to Complex Forecasting Methods Selecting the right forecasting methods is a critical component of forecasting. You will learn why sophisticated forecasting methods tend to be overestimated and how to…

How to Best Understand Forecasting at the Customer
Forecast Basics

How to Best Understand Forecasting at the Customer

Executive Summary Forecasting at the customer is a commonly requested item by companies. However, there are problematic issues with doing this. Forecasting at the customer is something that leverages a customer forecast hierarchy. Introduction As stated, an attribute can be any categorization that one wants to associate with a product. An attribute can also be…

The Reality vs Illusion of Make to Order and Forecasting
Forecast Basics

The Reality vs Illusion of Make to Order and Forecasting

Executive Summary Companies, promoted by consultants, continually propose that they would like to move to make to order. What goes unmentioned is that only a tiny percentage of companies can go to make to order. Why assemble to order is confused with make to order. Video Introduction: Make to Order Promises Text Introduction (Skip if…