Forecast Basics

Executive Summary Companies, promoted by consultants, continually propose that they would like to move to make to order. What goes unmentioned is that only a tiny percentage of companies can go to make to order. Why assemble to order is confused with make to order. Introduction At Brightwork Research & Analysis, we receive questions on…

Executive Summary The naive forecast creates a baseline forecast that can allow a forecast value-add for more advanced methods. Why the naive forecast so underused. Introduction The naive forecast creates a baseline forecast that can allow a forecast value-add for more advanced methods. Why the naive forecast is so underused will be discussed as well….

Executive Summary Historical adjustment is necessary to produce a forecast that matches with the desired adjustments. We cover historical adjustment in SAP DP and Demand Works Smoothie. Introduction Forecasting is not performed upon exactly what happened in the past. This is because companies are constantly in flux with regards to their products, and therefore some…

Executive Summary Forecast bias is distinct from forecast error and is one of the most important keys to improving forecast accuracy. Reducing bias means reducing the forecast input from biased sources. A test case study of how bias was accounted for at the UK Department of Transportation. *This article has been significantly updated as of…

Executive Summary Demand forecasting is broken into several different types of forecasting, ranging from statistical forecasting to sales forecasting. There are also many methods of performing demand forecasting that is covered in this article. Introduction The descriptions of demand planning or forecasting seem to try to get into a lot of detail about the topic…

Executive Summary Demand sensing and demand shaping are two methods that are often promoted to improve forecasting. However, one of these methods is barely ever applied. The other is not a way of improving the forecast but is presented as one by vendors. Introduction Demand planning always has new terms in supply chain forecasting that…

Executive Summary What is the history of fake forecasting? We cover the relationship to supply chain forecasting. Introduction This blog primarily focuses on supply chain forecasting. However, it is interesting occasionally to observe other areas of forecasting to learn from it. Wall Street is an exciting area to watch because the most money in business spent on…

Executive Summary How is data generally placed into demand planning systems? Why are some of the popular current methods so problematic? Definitions for This Article Attribute-Based Forecasting: The ability to group product by “attributes” such as Size, Flavor, Region flexibly, and relationally that supports forecasting. It creates a virtual rather than a static hierarchy. ROLAP:…