Did The US Mortality Rate Increase in 2020 and 2021?

Last Updated on May 7, 2022 by Shaun Snapp

Executive Summary

  • A major question is whether the US mortality rate increased under covid.
  • It appears that the deaths have been falsified.


The reporting of covid deaths has been irresponsible in that covid have been reported as the primary cause of death. In nearly all cases, covid has been one of many contributors to a person’s death. The statistics presented by medical authorities on the number of covid deaths is false. It is based upon whether a person died, who also tested positive using a PCR test. However, as I cover in the article Understanding the PCR Test and How There Was Never a Reliable Test for Covid. This means that no one has any idea how many people died from covid, as most of the positive PRC tests were false positives.

The only way to ascertain the actual mortality rate from covid is to check year over year mortality numbers.

Our References for This Article

If you want to see our references for this article and related Brightwork articles, visit this link.

What is the Average Age of a Person Who Dies from Covid?

The following quote roughly matches the table I included above.

The average person who dies from COVID is over 80 years old and has multiple underlying health conditions. In other words, their life expectancy is short, the average person who died in the 1918 pandemic was in their late 20s. So each death in the 1918 pandemic actually meant around 50 years more of life loss per person than each death in the COVID pandemic. – Why Most of What You Know About Covid is Wrong

Hmmm….but again, isn’t this also misinformation according to NBC? It is curious how the establishment media appear to have a bias against analysis.

Marginal Excess Mortality in 2020

There is one final aspect of to all of this that needs to be discussed. As I mentioned earlier, excess mortality in 2020, was marginal. How can this be explained when so many people have died of COVID? As I see it, there are two possible explanations. The first is that a lot of people who died of COVID actually died with COVID. In other words, they had a positive COVID test, and were therefore characterized as COVID deaths when the actual cause of death was something else. And second is that most people who died of COVID were so old and so frail, and had so many underlying health conditions that even without COVID they would have been dead before the year was out. There are no other reasonable explanations. I’m not saying that COVID is nothing or that it doesn’t exist. I’m saying that it’s a disease with a marginal effect on longevity.

Half of Swedish COVID deaths happened in nursing homes, where median life expectancy is less than a year. If half of all people who died of COVID in Sweden would have been dead within a year even without COVID. That would mean that the other half who died would have had to have 20 plus years of life left in order for the average to end up being 12 years. Considering that the average age of those who died in COVID in Sweden is 84. While the average age of death in Sweden, more generally is 82. That seems extremely unlikely. – Why Most of What You Know About Covid is Wrong

The Average Amount of Lifetime Loss from Covid

Just looking at the data from what has actually happened in Sweden, it seems more likely that the average amount of time lifetime loss to COVID is very low a few years at most. – Why Most of What You Know About Covid is Wrong

John’s Hopkins University: A Second Estimation of the Net Change in Mortality

A second examination of net mortality was also calculated for the US by John’s Hopkins University. This calculation quoted below was removed from the John Hopkins website.

Genevieve Briand, assistant program director of the Applied Economics master’s degree program at Hopkins, critically analyzed the effect of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in her webinar titled “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data.” From mid-March to mid-September, U.S. total deaths have reached 1.7 million, of which 200,000, or 12% of total deaths, are COVID-19-related. Instead of looking directly at COVID-19 deaths, Briand focused on total deaths per age group and per cause of death in the U.S. and used this information to shed light on the effects of COVID-19. After retrieving data on the CDC website, Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September, which includes the period from before COVID-19 was detected in the U.S. to after infection rates soared.

Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.

Obviously, this is evidence that as Dr. Rushworth stated regarding excess mortality in Sweden, covid results in very little loss of life. Obviously, if covid is primarily killing people who were very soon to die anyway, then it is not a deadly disease, which is why this article had to be removed from the John’s Hopkins website.

The John’s Hopkins article continues.

Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths. The CDC classified all deaths that are related to COVID-19 simply as COVID-19 deaths. Even patients dying from other underlying diseases but are infected with COVID-19 count as COVID-19 deaths.

This further supports the claim that the vast majority of covid deaths are those that died “with covid” rather than due to covid. It also calls into question how hospitals have been counting these deaths.

These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza (which I will cover further in the article) and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19. “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers. We found no evidence to the contrary,” Briand concluded.

Obviously, if the deaths stayed roughly the same from 2019 to 2020, or increased proportionately with the US population (which grows around 1% per year) then if the covid deaths went up, then the other deaths would have to have gone down.

After retrieving data on the CDC website, Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September, which includes the period from before COVID-19 was detected in the U.S. to after infection rates soared.

Something odd is that Briand claimed she took the data from the CDC website, but the CDC reports different numbers in total for 2020. When I obtained the CDC data from February through September of 2020 and then adjusted it for a year, I came to 3.27 million. So why did Briand come up with such a lower figure?

This study was published in November of 2020. It took very little time for specialists in this area to figure out the problem with this report. And it was taken down five days after it was published.

The video is still up on YouTube.

The Comments by John’s Hopkins After Taking Down the Study

After The News-Letter published this article on Nov. 22, it was brought to our attention that our coverage of Genevieve Briand’s presentation “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data” has been used to support dangerous inaccuracies that minimize the impact of the pandemic.

The dangerous inaccuracy is that the covid deaths are overreported. This is very inconvenient for those entities pushing the covid adjustments and the vaccines.

We decided on Nov. 26 to retract this article to stop the spread of misinformation, as we noted on social media. However, it is our responsibility as journalists to provide a historical record. We have chosen to take down the article from our website, but it is available here as a PDF.

Briand’s study should not be used exclusively in understanding the impact of COVID-19, but should be taken in context with the countless other data published by Hopkins, the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

A study does not need to be taken “in context” of these other studies. If the study shows that the mortality did not increase more than it would due to things like population growth, then the study is important on its own.

Furthermore, if the study is incorrect, why not keep it published at John’s Hopkins but correct it? This appears to be censorship.

People Who Are Not Medical Professionals or Disease Researchers Cannot Analyze The Increase or Decrease in Mortality?

This following quotation tries to explain why this study was censored.

As assistant director for the Master’s in Applied Economics program at Hopkins, Briand is neither a medical professional nor a disease researcher. At her talk, she herself stated that more research and data are needed to understand the effects of COVID-19 in the U.S.

Nurses are medical professionals. People that run CAT scan machines are also medical professionals. Most MDs, who are also medical professionals, white nothing and perform no documented analysis. Isn’t the important question whether the information is accurate? To be frank, medical professionals have added very little to the analysis during the pandemic.

The CDC is a Reliable Source of Information?

According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19. Additionally, Briand presented data of total U.S. deaths in comparison to COVID-19-related deaths as a proportion percentage, which trivializes the repercussions of the pandemic.

The CDC has provided some of the most false information on covid throughout the pandemic and they have been caught repeatedly rigging how things are counted to maximize the pandemic. A perfect example of this is found in the article How The CDC Rigged the Count of Adverse Reactions From The Covid Vaccines With A 14 Day Lag.

Therefore, if Johns Hopkins is pointing to the CDC as a source, they are ignorant on the topic or part of the problem. And unsurprisingly, both the CDC and Johns Hopkins are major recipients of funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and this foundation only funds entities that help it maximize the return on its investments.

Furthermore, why is the CDC report not being taken into “context” with Briand’s study? One of the two statements is false — either mortality did increase more than expected in 2020 or it didn’t. As Briand’s study is based upon CDC data, if that data was not changed by the CDC, the Briand’s study is in error. All this censorship language by John’s Hopkins can be dispensed with, and they can say that Briand made a mathematical error. So what is the error? Briand’s paper, which may have been redacted, does not publish the statistics that she obtained from the CDC when she did her study.

Comment on The Study

Consider the following figures- US Total deaths by year per CDC:

2013: 2,596,993
2014: 2,626,418
2015: 2,712,630
2016: 2,744,248
2017: 2,813,503
2018: 2,839,205
2019: 2,855,000
2020: as of 11/14 total deaths= 2,512,880

At present the US is experiencing a 1.12% increase in overall mortality rates for 2020- not good- pandemicky numbers to be sure.

However, last year, 2019, there was also a 1.12% increase. Did we miss a pandemic in 2019?

But wait it’s even “scarier”- 2018 saw a 1.22% increase in mortality rates, 2017 saw a 1.24% increase, 2016 1.27% increase, 2015 1.27% increase, 2014 1.29% increase- all exceeding 2020’s increase in mortality rate- so does this mean we have had pandemics for the last 7 years?

Does this indicate non-stop pandemics every year for the last 7 years and we just weren’t paying attention and didn’t have an ‘honest” media to keep us pinned to our beds in a proper state of fear?

And BTW 2013 all the way back to 2009 all showed .09% increases in mortality rates- don’t know where the cutoff is but certainly even these years were “pandemic like” if you feel this year was truly a pandemic.

It isn’t until we go back to the year 2008 that we see a decrease in overall mortality rates in the US. For 20 straight years there were decreases in mortality rates and then in 2009 this changed- since then we have had an increase in mortality rates. Why is that? Could this point to the 2008 economic recession as being the leading indicator rather than some supernatural viral entity?

In reality this year at present seems to be no different in overall mortality rates compared to last year and less of an increase than 5 of the 6 the preceding years. How is this possible during a “pandemic of biblical proportions?”

It’s always important to look at the rates (populations are increasing and rates vary) and overall trends to get a clear picture.

The problem with this quote is that when I tallied the deaths using the CDC data from January to Mid November I get 2.92 million, not 2.51 million.

And here is another comment on the article that also proposes a much lower number.

The same data pulled from the CDC website shows the 2020 deaths from all causes in the US at 2.27 million by 11/21/2020

No, that is much lower than when I looked at the data which is over a year after this person did.

And this comment.

As of December 23rd there have been 3,063,071 according to CDC. There’s the COVID deaths. You can subtract 15-30k for aging population if you like but it’s still ~200k.

And this..

2,748,341 as of Dec 14th 2020 by the CDC

So in one week  the number of deaths increased by (3,063,071 – 2,748,341) = 314,730?

I checked the data from this period, and I see a little more than 80,000 deaths for each week in December of 2020. How did the deaths increase by 314,730?

This brings up a question. There are multiple independent sources that are quoting CDC mortality data, which is lower than when I check the CDC data. This makes me question whether the CDC changed and increased the mortality figures. There is a comment to this effect on the John’s Hopkins retraction.

The CDC knows that raw death count has been increasing every year since 2013. They know that incorporating the previous years into a baseline to which to compare 2020 is mathematically flawed. The CDC is being dishonest/deceptive. That is why data found elsewhere on their site doesn’t demonstrate the excess deaths that the often cited link (above) does.

Provisional Deaths for 2020

I found a graphic that may explain this issue, which is that the CDC did change its numbers for 2020.

That 2.9 million figure is very close to multiple figures mentioned already. Its shows another 8 deaths per 100,000 versus 2019, and is only another 52k deaths from 2019. 

When I looked for both of these links…



I found nothing on the CDC website.

There are a few options. One is the graph is completely concocted and the links are fake. The other is the CDC did publish this table, and then took it down. However, there are multiple people referring to what appear to be the provisional figures in the comments of the John Hopkins article. It would also explain why the math in the Braind study does not match the current CDC mortality data for 2020.

Now observe the following comment from the John’s Hopkins retraction.

As of 12/19/2020 Total Deaths for 2020 All Causes =

That is also higher than the provisional table.

And here is another comment, this one from Jan of 2021.

The problem lies with your data.

Deaths as per 11/14 were not 2.5 million even when you posted this, even allowing for reporting lags. Using CDC data current as at 12/23, deaths as of 11/14 are 2,847,181. That’s almost as many deaths as in the whole of last year.

Data source: CDC

Export the CSV file and see for yourself.

Deaths for 2020 have already exceeded 3 million and will reach about 3.25 million. Up 400,000 (14%) on 2019 or 2018.

This commenter states the previous commenters are wrong — but they do not consider that the CDC is altering the mortality statistics after it first reported them.

This other comment is quite odd.

Where did you get your US mortality rates for 2019? There is no official reported data from the CDC as it takes 12-18 months to tabulate those figures.

First, it is preposterous that it would take the CDC this long, but secondly, the CDC reports provisional numbers on a weekly basis. I have the file that reports the deaths from the third week ending October 24th 2021 on November 5th of 2021.

This quote explains more of the issue.

There is a problem that reports of deaths aren’t complete for several months. Reports of additional deaths trickle in for several months.
A possibly better idea is given by the National Center for Health Statistics tables for deaths for 2019 and the first 6 months of 2020. This would exclude all excess deaths from July on, but would give months with a more complete report of deaths.

So did “deaths trickle in,” or did the CDC add to the deaths?

Influenza Case Recategorization

Influenza has nearly disappeared since the arrival of covid. The idea of re-categorization of influenza cases as covid cannot be addressed by establishment health experts. I cover this likely categorization in the article How Influenza Cases Were Recategorized as Covid Cases.

The CDC’s 2020 Mortality Numbers

After the Johns Hopkins study was published, the CDC reported around 3.38 million deaths in the US, which is a significant jump from 2019.

This is a study by JAMA into excess mortality.

2021’s Mortality Numbers

Curiously, there has been far more discussion over 2020’s mortality numbers than 2021’s mortality numbers. I added each month up until the end of October and got 2.72 million. Annualized (2.72 * (6/5)) comes to 3.26 million. This is another substantial increase from 2019.

And it is 3.38 M – 3.26 M = 120,000 less than in 2020.

However, if the deaths “trickle in” as they did in 2020, then the mortality in 2021 will exceed 2020.

The False Assumption of Covid Mortality Estimation

It has been stated by a number of people that I have talked to that the best way to determine the covid deaths, is to take 2019 (when there was no covid) and compare it to the mortality of 2020 and 2021 for the US. The problem with doing this is that health authorities created a covid treatment protocol that itself led to a large number of deaths (which is covered in the article How the US Covid Treatment Protocol Maximized Hospital Admissions and Deaths). Most prominently these are the use of the deadly drug Remdesivir, and the use of ventilators on covid patients.

Open Item #1: Allocation of Deaths to Remdesivir

Just as in the studies on Remdesivir, at least 1/3 and probably closer to 1/2 of those that are given Remdesivir die because Remdesivir so damages their organs. This is covered in the article How The NIH And Hospitals Used Remdesivir To Quickly Kill Covid Patients.

This means that a very significant percentage of the deaths in the US that are attributed as a covid death was actually because of Remdesivir.

Open Item #2: Allocation of Deaths from Ventilation

There was an enormous overuse of ventilation for treating covid. Ventilation is part of the US covid protocol, but a significant number of people that are placed on ventilators don’t come off the ventilators.

There was also strong financial incentives, which has been largely covered up by the establishment media, to place people on ventilators, as the hospitals receive roughly $40,000 from Medicare for every covid patient placed on a ventilator as I cover in the article Where Covid Patients Put on Ventilator to Maximizes Hosptial Profits.

The establishment media has tried to call this a conspiracy theory, but this is the payment amount given to hospitals for doing this.

Open Item #3: Allocation of Deaths from the Covid Vaccines

The covid vaccines are the most dangerous vaccines ever introduced, and they are based upon highly experimental technology. The vaccines are not safe, as is covered in the article How Safe Are The Covid Vaccines? It is well known at this point that covid vaccines cause death.

John Hopkins can’t admit to any of these causes of death. So as with all of the medical establishment, they are useless in driving to an accurate estimate. If I relied upon the NIH for funding or worked in the medical field, I would be censored and or fired for publishing the article you are reading. This is why no accurate information on this topic has come from the medical establishment. John Hopkins would love to take down the article you are reading — they just don’t have the ability to do so.


There are major questions regarding how accurate the CDC numbers are. If all of the increases in mortality in 2020 were just old deaths trickling in, this same issue may not have occurred in 2021. Because as of the beginning of November, the deaths are already high, higher than the provisional deaths at the same time last year. And this is after the vaccines have been out for 2021. (FDA EUA was issued in December of 2020)

Future Analysis

  • I have yet to perform an analysis that takes the Remdesivir deaths, for which I would need to find what percentage of people were placed on Remdesivir as a treatment, in order to answer the question of what percentage of deaths were likely because of Remdesivir.
  • Another analysis is to estimate the number of people that were killed by being placed on ventilators.
  • Another analysis is how many people died from the vaccines.

All of this is to say that covid treatment protocols and deaths from the vaccines have caused many deaths. And there are other complicating factors, which is that many medical procedures were postponed during the pandemic. Some of those would have had to have increased the mortality as well.