How Accurate Was SAP on Having a Billion Users by 2015?

Executive Summary

  • For years SAP has said that that it would have 1 billion users by 2015.
  • In this article, we review the accuracy of this claim. 

What SAP Said Having 1 Billion Users by 2015

So SAP stated this as a goal, so one might say that it is not fair to declare this as a prediction. However, this goes to the unreasonableness of some of SAP’s statements.

The Reasonableness of this Goal

In 2015 there were 7.2 billion people on the planet. However, if you remove people that are not in the workforce, according to the World Bank, there were 3.44 billion employed people in 2015. Many of these people don’t live in developed countries. A significant portion of the workforce works in jobs where they would never come into contact with anything more than an ordering system, such as customer service jobs like restaurants, coffee shops, retail, etc..

In 2015 there were and estimated 3 billion Internet users in the world. If SAP had attained McDermott’s goal of 1 billion SAP users, then this means that 1 out of every three people that had access to the Internet were also SAP users. Take a walk into any Starbucks. How many times do you see the SAPGUI up on people’s screens?

As a third point of comparison, in 2016 Gmail had 1 billion active monthly users. So quite clearly, Gmail is a far more broadly used application that SAP.

Basically, through any of multiple ways, McDermott could have asked someone who works for him to fact the check the likelihood that SAP would have had anywhere close to 1 billion users by 2015, and they could have told him that it was not a reasonable goal.

Conclusion and Calculation

SAP receives a 0% accuracy rating on having 1 billion users by 2015.

Link to the Parent Article

This is one of many research articles into a specific topic, that supports a larger research calculation. For the overview of the research calculation for all of the SAP topics that were part of the study, see the following primary research A Study into SAP’s Accuracy.

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References

https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/

*https://techcrunch.com/2016/02/01/gmail-now-has-more-than-1b-monthly-active-users/