- Coronavirus’ mortality differs enormously by age and fitness level of the victim.
- We cover the likely reason for this.
The media has given an enormous amount of coverage of the Coronavirus. However, they have tended to cover the virus in a very sensational and, therefore, non-analytical way.
Let us get into the data on the mortality of the Coronavirus to see what it tells us.
Mortality by Age
The following table is from World O Meters, which has become the goto site for Coronavirus statistics.
Notice the dramatically increasing mortality by age.
If we look at people in the 70 to 79-year-old category, they have mortality from Coronavirus that is 40 times higher than someone in the 30 to 39-year-old category. People above 80 have a mortality rate that is 74 times higher than those in the 30 to 39-year-old category. This tells us that the vast majority of deaths from Coronavirus have been the aged. This tells me that many, if not perhaps, most of the people dying from Coronavirus are really just having their deaths pulled forward a few years.
Major media outlets have largely argued against this analysis, but pointing to anecdotes of people who are young and “perfectly healthy” who have died.
- First, the anecdotes do not tell us the overall trend.
- Second, as the victims who were declared as perfectly healthy were not given a full medical exam before falling ill, we don’t really know what underlying issues they had that were unpublished.
No Underlying Symptoms in Some of the Coronavirus Deaths?
The article titled Coronavirus Ravages 7 Members of a Single Family, Killing 4, in the New York Times, was very widely read. And it describes exactly what the title says about how the Fusco family of New Jersey had a very high mortality rate from the virus.
\However, the following quotation was found in the article.
the state’s health commissioner, Judith M. Persichilli, has said Ms. Fusco-Jackson had no underlying health problems.
Ms. Paradiso Fodera said the woman’s younger siblings were also in good health before contracting the virus.
“They’re young and they don’t have any underlying conditions,” Ms. Paradiso Fodera said.
It was unclear whether Mrs. Fusco, a heavyset woman, had underlying health problems.
The term “heavyset” is a PC term for fat or overweight. Whose feelings are we trying to save here?
Well, she is dead. Perhaps it saves the feelings of her family to not have their recently deceased mother as overweight or obese. However, “heavyset” is not a medical term. Big-boned or other euphemisms also don’t belong in an article about a medical condition.
Then we can review a picture taken of the family.
Ms. Fusco is wearing the grey dress.
According to the New York Times…
“They’re young and they don’t have any underlying conditions.”
However, nearly everyone in this photo is overweight, and some are quite substantially overweight.
Any person at this body mass has underlying health issues. This is not fat-shaming, I don’t care what the Fusco family decided to weight, but the analysis that the Fusco family were normal healthy individuals is just not accurate. Furthermore, the Fusco’s had a high mortality rate from Coronavirus, isn’t it likely that their physical condition was a very likely reason for this? Yet, the New York Times presents this as some great mystery.
This plays into the storyline that the media has largely been running with, that
“Anyone can die from Coronavirus.”
This is supposed to be some type of wisdom. The current idea of “wisdom” is to say that any factor affects all groups. This is a view in entire opposition to data analysis. One is allowed to point out discrepancies, but only if those discrepancies fit within some PC paradigm. For example, Coronavirus also has a higher mortality with African Americans.
Major media was willing to cover the racial differences in Coronavirus deaths, even though the ratio only roughly 2x higher for African Americans versus other races.
Major media was far less interested in covering the age differences in the Coronavirus, even though the proportion is (as we covered) 40x to 76x, which is far higher than the African American differences of 2x.
The actual discrepancy seems to be of little importance to major media.
Instead, they notice some discrepancies that are “catnip” to them and then ignore or underreport far higher discrepancies. This reporting, for example, extends to the reporting of the percentage of homeless that are female. (which has been reported in some articles be 1 out of 4). The articles on this topic have tended to ignore the 3 out of 4 men that are homeless and ask…
“How can we reduce the homelessness with women!”
So yes, perhaps anyone can die from the Coronavirus, but not with anywhere near equal probability. As the table shows.
Understanding The Relationship Between Mortality and Underlying Conditions
The topic of cardiovascular fitness and being able to fight Coronavirus is found in another table from the World O Meter.
Notice the #1 most important pre-existing condition is cardiovascular disease. This is, I think, because of the ability of the body to bring in oxygen and remove waste to fight the virus. If one’s cardiovascular health is low, one is, in general, more susceptible to infection. This is why heavy people have higher mortality after surgery. This is not entirely a single factor dependency.
People can be heavy or overweight, but still, be relatively active. And active person still has a high lung capacity and cardiovascular condition, even if they are overweight. Research indicates that activity is often as important if not more important than one’s body mass measurement (something generally resisted by the medical community).
However, physical inactivity and obesity have a high correlation. There is no possible way that many of the people in this photo of the Fusco family were overweight, but were physically active. This means that many of the members of the Fusco family could not rely on either a more normal body weight, nor overweight but physically active to increase their body function to fight after they contracted the Coronavirus.
The Influence of Cardiovascular Fitness on Fighting the Coronavirus
If a compromised cardiovascular system made one more susceptible to dying from the Coronavirus, it stands to reason that good cardiovascular fitness would do the opposite.
The best defense (that is after one has been infected with the Coronavirus, not keeping from being infected) is being in good physical condition. Closing the gyms reduces the transmission, but it has the paradoxical effect of lowering fitness, reducing one’s ability to fight Corona once or if one has contracted the virus.
The Influence of Lung Health on Fighting the Coronavirus
The #3 most important pre-existing condition that predicts mortality in chronic respiratory disease. This also makes sense as Coronvirus primarily attacks the lungs — but as doctors learn more about the virus, it seems to attack other organs as well, perhaps even the brain.
Coronavirus is closely related to a number of well-known viruses, but it is too new to have been extensively mapped and understood.
But the most acute organ the virus invades is the lungs.
If one has lower lung capacity (which also, a person with low cardiovascular fitness will naturally have), then this naturally means the infected individual has less spare lung capacity and is more susceptible to death as their limited lung capacity fills with fluid.
Coronavirus is not killing people at random, and the concept that “anyone can die from Coronavirus” is a misrepresentation of the data on Coronavirus mortality. The news media is more interested in coming up with shocking words like “horrific” or “lockdown” than presenting an analytical explanation of the epidemiology of Coronavirus.
The mortality of Coronavirus is highly concentrated among those who are aged or have pre-existing conditions. These are not mutually exclusive as most of the aged have pre-existing conditions as physical function declines with age, and declines strongly in old age.
Knowing who is susceptible to dying from Coronavirus should be used in how to respond to the virus. For example, the most susceptible people could be quarantined, rather than the far more expensive option of restricting the activities of the larger population. But the only problem is that this article has only addressed mortality from the Coronavirus. Because so little is known about the long term effects of the Coronavirus, surviving could, and likely will lead to long term health or lowered functioning capabilities after one “recovers” from the virus. All of this is unknown, as is whether the ability of the body to repair the damage done by the Coronavirus.