What is Statistical Forecasting?

What is Statistical Forecasting?

Executive Summary A statistical forecast is a distinct way of creating a forecast. We cover what it is and why they are called statistical. Introduction What is statistical forecasting is a common question. See our references for this article and related articles at this link. Most statistical forecasts, in developed countries at least, are generated…

What is a Forecasting Method?

What is a Forecasting Method?

Executive Summary Understanding a what is a forecasting method is critical to understanding statistical forecasting. We cover how to differentiate a forecasting method from a model. Introduction The question of what is a forecasting method is a relatively common question around forecasting. For this article, we will limit our topic of statistical forecasts. See our…

How to Get Around The Problems with Forecasting in SAP ERP

Executive Summary Few companies use forecasting functionality in SAP ERP. We cover how this functionality can be used by performing external forecasting analysis. Video Introduction: The Infrequently Used Forecasting in SAP ERP Text Introduction (Skip if You Watched the Video) For anyone focused on advanced planning, the forecasting functionality in ERP is so limited that…

How to Understand Best Fit Forecast Model Selection

How to Understand Best Fit Forecast Model Selection

Executive Summary We cover best-fit functionality in how it works and the implementation steps in best-fit. Why the best fit historical accuracy is lower than generally proposed. Video Introduction: How to Understand Best Fit Forecast Model Selection Text Introduction (Skip if You Watched the Video) Best fit forecasting is a procedure within most supply chain…

Getting Around the US Government’s Fake Economic Statistics

Getting Around the US Government’s Fake Economic Statistics

Executive Summary Why is a causal forecasting a missed opportunity? How to get the right data for causal economic forecasting? Introduction One of the missed opportunities in forecasting I have discussed in the past is using macroeconomic trends to adjust forecasts. This type of adjustment would be performed at the top-level of the hierarchy, and…

How to Make Sense of The Natural Confusion with Alpha Beta Gamma

How to Make Sense of The Natural Confusion with Alpha Beta Gamma

Executive Summary The jargon-heavy core statistical forecasting parameters known as “Alpha, Beta, and Gamma” could just as easily be called by the more descriptive names of “Base Factor, Trend Factor, and Seasonality Factor.”  Video Introduction: Translating Alpha, Beta & Gamma Text Introduction (Skip if You Watched the Video) The jargon-heavy core statistical forecasting parameters known…

The Missed Opportunity of Causal Forecasting?

The Missed Opportunity of Causal Forecasting?

Executive Summary Causal forecasting is a method of forecasting based upon tying the forecast to a variable. Causal forecasting is little used in statistical forecasting. What Is Causal Forecasting? Causal forecasting is forecasting one value by another value. There are various forms of complexity concerning causal forecasting. However, the most simple mathematical explanation is the…

What to Look for In a Forecast Simulation Environment

What to Look for In a Forecast Simulation Environment

Executive Summary Forecast simulation can be used to test important items that allow for the forecasting application to be adjusted. Specific items make a forecasting application a good prototyping forecasting. Introduction to Forecast Simulation Rarely does the public or do people who work at companies find out about problem implementations. However, I run into a…

How to Best Understand Forecast and Supply Planning Prototyping

How to Best Understand Forecast and Supply Planning Prototyping

Executive Summary Forecast prototyping is performing forecast and supply testing. Prototyping is critical to understanding how to make changes to the forecasting and supply system. Companies make a significant mistake when they select one forecasting system and trust that everything in that system will work as advertised. Instead, forecasting should be prototyped in another competitive…

How to Understand Consensus Forecasting Methods vs Statistical Forecasting Methods

How to Understand Consensus Forecasting Methods vs Statistical Forecasting Methods

Executive Summary The statistical forecasting is typically combined with judgment methods produced by sales and marketing to arrive at a consensus forecast. We compare these different forecasting approaches. Introduction to Consensus Forecasting There are three categories of obtaining forecast information from different people who apply to supply chain forecasting: Consensus forecasting Manual overrides to statistical…