Search Results for: forecasting

  • How to Best Understand the Naive Forecast

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … or consulting firms. A common reason is that software vendors and consulting firms want to continue to present the fiction that their software and approaches contribute significant value over the naive forecast. You will learn why testing your forecast against the naive forecast is an essential first step in evaluating forecasting effectiveness. 
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    This fact is largely unknown by forecast practitioners and is usually not discussed very much by software vendors or consulting firms. A common reason is that …

  • Supply Planning References

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … Murray, Michael A. Saunders, John A. Tomlin and Margaret H. Wright. “George B. Dantzig and Systems Optimization.” Discrete Optimization. January 2007.
    Gross, D. and C. M. Harris. “Fundamentals of Queuing Theory.” 3rd ed. John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
    Herrin, Richard. “Managing Products Via Demand Variability and Business Importance.” Journal of Business Forecasting. Spring 2007.
    Horlacher, Frank. How to Plan with Constrained Storage in APO Supply Network Planning with Optimization Based Planning. SAP Community Network, 2010. https://www.sdn.sap.com/irj/scn/index?rid=/library/uuid/b004ab38-d73f-2d10-9d86-81f014034235.
    Inman, R. Anthony. Distribution and Distribution Requirements Planning. Reference for …

  • How MCA Solutions Should be Remembered

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … sometimes consultant. Along with the people they brought in, they were able to implement something that had previously been primarily of academic interest in a commercial product.
    A High Degree of Control Over the Supply Plan
    MCA developed one of the most powerful supply planning applications, either in service parts planning or finished goods planning. I have used (MCA’s solution was also forecasting customized explicitly for service parts). A few of the reasons that MCA’s application was so powerful are listed below:

    By leveraging MEIO, which is more powerful and controllable than other supply planning methods (MRP …

  • Inventory Optimization and Multi Echelon Vendor Profiles

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Profiles
    Vendors showcased in the book “Inventory Optimization and Multi Echelon Software.”
    ToolsGroup
    ToolsGroup offers unique probability-based supply chain planning (SCP) and inventory optimization solutions that allow companies to master even large, heterogeneous, or demanding supply chains. On the demand side, they incorporate best-of-breed demand modeling, order frequency forecasting, and demand-sensing technology. On the supply side, they offer multi-echelon inventory optimization and replenishment planning.
    https://www.toolsgroup.com
    Logility
    Logility is a leading provider of collaborative, best-of-breed supply chain solutions that helps small, medium, large, and Fortune 1000 companies realize substantial bottom-line …

  • The Problem with SNP Optimizer Flow Control

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … Transportation Management [SAP TM], formerly known as Transportation Planning and Vehicle Scheduling [TP/VS]). But isn’t an option in any of the newer applications (SAP Extended Warehouse Management [SAP EWM], SAP Supply Network Collaboration [SAP SNC], SAP Event Management, SAP Service Parts Planning [SAP SPP], and SAP Forecasting and Replenishment). Also, the core optimization functionality in SAP SCM has been stabilized for some time. This shift is partly because optimization didn’t meet its originally envisioned potential. So, the newer applications in SAP SCM have tended to downplay optimization in favor of other functionality.
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    Conclusion …

  • How to Use Order Fill Rate Versus Backorder as a Service Measurement

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … who practices in this field.
    Author Profile
    Wayne Fu is a Senior Product Management in Servigistics. Wayne has worked in the service part planning domain with an operation management background for more than a decade. In Servigistics, he led the research and development of various areas like install-base (provisioning) forecasting, inventory optimization, and distribution planning. Currently, he is focusing on the effectiveness of forecast techniques in Last Time Buy.
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    Conclusion
    The service measurement selected must fit the application. The early MEIO research papers were centered around the military application and thus used backorders and backorder, which …

  • How the Master Production Schedule Changed Through Time

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … issue is really what types of bill of materials to use to convert the Master Production Schedule into the priority and capacity planning details view. One or more of the three different types of BOMs may be used:”
    “Specific finished products
    Major subassemblies
    Planning modules”
    “The greater the difficulty in forecasting the product model or combination of options in a product model that a customer will buy, the greater the need for a well-defined planning module at the BOM.” – George Plossl
    However, while this may have been true when this was written, modern systems can quickly ultimately explode the …

  • How to Understand The Safety Stock Calculation in SAP SNP

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … in SAP APO™ as a demand and not a supply element, this means that safety stock settings do not have any impact on the available quantity.” 
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    Conclusion
    Safety stock and safety stock calculation is the portion of the overall stocking position explicitly designed to account for forecasting and supply variability. Safety stock is not required because of lead times or the volume of a forecast – it is because of the variability of either of these two components. The second most important thing to understand about safety stock is that variability is projected –it is probabilistic and …

  • How to Use Forecast Consumption Settings in SAP APO

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … the following:
    “Does SNP take into consideration the unconsumed forecast or left over forecast from previous days and plan to supply?”
    For example, today, there were 200 cases leftover in the forecast for 115583 in 2651.

    The benefit of pushing it forward would be to make up for the over forecasting on Monday and the under forecast the latter part of the week. We could smooth out our peaks If we pushed the estimates forward to plan with.”
    The overall email question has been broken into the following sub-questions so they can be answered individually:
    What is Forward and …

  • How to Understand The SAP APO Macro, Operators and Functions

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … you don’t have to follow any of the English language’s preexisting vocabularies and create your own make-believe set of terms. While confusing to other people, it will eventually become used. Making up one’s own terminology from scratch saves large software companies’ countless hours from using a dictionary or thesaurus.

    The Macro Header

    The macro header screen is shown below:

    As to the third point above, several important types of macros can be created and used.

    “Default macro: Carried out whenever the forecasting screen is regenerated, such as when the planning book is opened or closed, or