Search Results for: supply-planning

  • How to Best Understand Measuring the Unconstrained Forecast

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … makes no difference) substitutes the 60 units it is short for product ABC in August for product XYZ in August.
    The forecasting process is held accountable not for how well it is forecasting, but for how well it is forecasting within the constraints of the company. But the forecasting process should not be held accountable for the company’s constraints. What the company can fulfill is a question for supply planning.

    What are the problems with this added scenario?

    Product ABC keeps its inaccurate demand record of 160 units.
    Product XYZ has 60 units added to its demand history …

  • The Problem with POS Data for Supply Chain Forecasting

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … demand sensing, the POS data from the last few days is used to influence a forecast, which is for time 28 days out into the future.

    The critical point is not that POS data can be sent to a forecasting system.
    It can.
    The question is, what does the forecasting system do with it? Is it used to adjust the forecast on Jan 2nd?
    If it is used to “adjust” any forecast that has already been made, it is irrelevant for supply planning. Therefore it is not forecasting or forecasting that is intended to improve the supply planning process …

  • The Problem with Machine Learning for Supply Chain Forecasting

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … the eastern half of the country, some companies are doing forecasts at the product/store level at daily, weekly, monthly and longer time frames.”
    No company does a forecast for just “the eastern half of the country.” Companies have to forecast at the product location. If not, what goes into supply planning…..a forecast for the eastern half of the country?
    How would that work exactly?
    As for daily forecasting, daily forecasting is the hobgoblin of the mind of people who do not understand statistical forecasting. Even weekly forecasting often reduces forecast accuracy, as we cover in the article Test …

  • How Accurate Was SAP the SNP Optimizer?

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    For years SAP has said that the SNP optimizer is useful for performing supply planning.
    In this article, we review the accuracy of this claim. 

    Video Introduction: What SAP Said About its the SNP Optimizer
    https://youtu.be/ot6YFm5GsPo
    Text Introduction (Skip if You Watched the Video)
    The SNP Optimizer is part of the SAP APO suite, and it is a cost optimizer that produces a supply plan. It is supposed to provide higher quality output for the following the initial supply planning run and the deployment supply planning run. It is supposed to be leading edge and …

  • A Study into the Accuracy of SAP

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … Area (Prediction) SAP Brightw. 1st Made by SAP 1st Made by Brightw. Link to Article with Full Explanation

    SAP MDM 5% 95% 2005 2009 See Article Link

    The PP/DS Optimizer Provides Good Production Planing and Scheduling Output 0% 100% 1999 2010 See Article Link

    The SNP Optimizer Provides Good Supply Planning Output 0% 100% 1999 2012 See Article Link

    Best Practices are Contained within SAP 0% 100% 1990’s 2010 See Article Link

    Design Thinking Speeds SAP Implementations 0% 100% 2013 2017 See Article Link

    S/4HANA is Complete 0% 100% 2015 2017 See Article Link

    SAP Rapid Deployment …

  • What is the Accuracy of CONSILIO IT on MRP on HANA Performance?

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … to constraints, especially when new concepts, such as restriction-based and optimizing methods, are to compensate for the deficits of the MRP. The data volume increases and the run times of the programs are even longer.”
    This paragraph is virtually incomprehensible. So we have to guess what CONSILIO IT actually means.
    New methods for supply planning have existed for some time. But they were developed not because of performance problems with MRP but because the methods were considered improvements on MRP regarding the planning output. These methods are covered in the book Supply Planning with MRP, DRP, and APS …

  • How to Understand DDMRP as Yet Another Repackaging of JIT and Lean

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    The Demand-Driven Institute has created the DDMRP concept, which began with Orlicky’s 3rd edition MRP Book’s perversion.
    DDMRP is very simply a repackaged of JIT and Lean.

    Introduction
    DDMRP is an adjustment to supply planning proposed to improve the outcomes of supply planning systems. While it has MRP in the name, DDMRP is significantly closer to Lean approaches than MRP. In fact, in reading the literature on DDMRP, it is difficult not to be taken back to the claims made by Lean. DDMRP claims to be influenced by what seems like six different pre-existing …

  • How to Replace the Optimizer in SNP and PP/DS

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … work exactly. But it could be possible to switch out the ILOG optimizer for another off the shelf optimizer — and then have that optimizer adjusted by the people that specialize in it. I can reach out to a colleague who has a recent start-up and is at a level of detail below me as he has written code around optimizers.
    The second question is whether there is another optimization application that performs supply planning. There certainly is. However, since SNP was developed, the industry has moved away from cost optimization for supply planning. Let’s take a short …

  • Brightwork Explorer for Tuning Forecast and MRP Systems

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … high-level descriptive statistics that are important and figuring out supply chain planning quality and areas to improve. Rather, they are focused on meeting the needs of planners often to evaluate specific product location combinations. It is surprising how many vendors have missed the critical workflows that are standard in Brightwork Explorer.

    Brightwork Explorer can tell you how efficiently your inventory is being deployed.
    It can tell you where you are over-investing in stock.
    It can tell you where you are under-investing in inventory.

    Our parameter calculation/optimization allows for MRP and other supply planning systems to be

  • How Accurate is SAP's Page on APO?

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … seen many APO implementations, it is rare to see companies benefit very much from APO modules. APO is integrated into ERP, but the integration, called the CIF, has a high degree of overhead. And companies that use APO do not end up minimizing inventory.
    The Problems with Constraining in APO
    Supply planning constraints cannot constrain mid to long range demand plans because neither the SNP (supply planning module) optimizer makes any sense. CTM also is somewhat illogical and has many problems and a very high overhead on projects. These are the only two constraint-based methods in SNP, and they …