Search Results for: forecasting

  • Brightwork Forecasting Article Index

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Each tab below is an article category. Select a category tab to see the articles for that category.
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    ‌Forecasting BasicsAI & ML ForecastingForecasting StatisticallyForecast ImprovementForecast SalesForecast ErrorBrightwork Explorer Forecast Error Measurement

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  • How To Best Remove Forecast Bias From A Forecasting Process

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … points out they have a financial bias. And if you prove that their forecast was biased with all the numbers, they will often still say it wasn’t by coming up with an excuse for why “something changed” and that this was why their forecast was off. This extends beyond forecasting as people generally think they are far more objective than they are. It is difficult for even salespeople that they may have some bias in presenting their products versus a competitor’s products. Typically a person who is 100% biased will make a statement like the following.
    Ok, I …

  • Explanation of the Brightwork Cross Peer Evaluation for Forecasting Vendors

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    This article explains the Cross Peer Evaluation to vendors.
    This gives vendors an alternative to Gartner.

    Introduction
    The IT analyst space has a major problem. While there are several major IT analysts, for software selection a single company, Gartner is dominant. Gartner has created a monopoly through more than 60 acquisitions and forces vendors to use them as shortlists are based very heavily on the Gartner MQ. This is the case even though the MQs are not auditable and are strongly rigged towards the largest vendors. Vendors constantly reach out to Brightwork and complain that they have no …

  • References for Brightwork Statistical Forecasting Articles

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … in Forecasting,” SAS
    Supply Chain Strategy, McGraw Hill, Edward Frazelle
    Sales and Inventory Planning with SAP APO by SAP Press
    Supply Chain Management for Advanced Planning, Springer Press
    Reference #3: Article Titled:
    How to Understand Consensus Forecasting Methods vs Statistical Forecasting Methods
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    Gilliland, Michael, “Worst Practices in Forecasting,” SAS
    “The Fortune Sellers,” William A. Sheriden, John Wiley & Sons, 1998
    Reference #4: Article Titled:
    How to Understand an Incorrect Forecasting Article by CIO on Nike
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    https://www.usnews.com/money/blogs/outside-voices-small-business/2008/12/03/3-dangerous-myths-about-sales-forecasting
    “Production …

  • Comments on Brightwork Articles on Outliers in Forecasting

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    This article contains comments from articles on outliers in forecasting.

    Introduction
    These comments are in response to the articles on outliers in forecasting.
    Comment #1: Tim Reilly
    Shaun,
    Great Article.
    I just want to second your point about finding an application which is good at doing this. For example, your equation is the classic regression equation (ie y=a +bx). Most software will use that to do causal modeling. The problem is that regression assumes that the first and last observations have equal importance. Regression ignores time. In time series analysis, this is called “autocorrelation”. Regression is meant …

  • Comments on Brightwork Articles on Crostons in Forecasting

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    This article contains comments from articles on crostons in forecasting.

    Introduction
    These comments are in response to the articles on crostons in forecasting.
    Comment #1: Brian Varney
    Hello,
    I am trying to emulate a Croston by using exponential smoothing on the size and interval components. I seem to get success in matching SAS’ High Performance Forecasting package except for one situation so far. The situation is when there are multiple leading zeros. In this situation the size component matches but not the interval component. Do you know of any special rules about handling a Croston when there are …

  • Comments on Brightwork Articles on Demand Sensing in Forecasting

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    This article contains comments from articles on demand sensing in forecasting.

    Introduction
    These comments are in response to the articles on demand sensing in forecasting.
    Comment #1: Tibor Vister
    Hi Shaun,
    As already started discussion in another topic I would like to give you my comments here as well.I see demand sensing useful technique when used in combination with postponement/risk pooling techniques (e.g. ship through one CDC, keep safety stocks in CDC, etc.), especially when applied in companies with multi-echelon network (large and complex organizations). In such environment you deal with “multiple” lead times …

  • Comments on Brightwork Articles on Alpha Beta Gamma in Forecasting

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    This article contains comments from articles on alpha, beta gamma in forecasting.

    Introduction
    These comments are in response to the articles on alpha, beta gamma in forecasting.
    Comment #1: Thomas S
    Hello, I would like to understand the range of alpha, beta and gamma.
    These are simply weighing factors. Combined they cannot exceed “1”. In your example, if the Alpha were .8, then almost all the weight would be applied to the most recent values. This would be like telling the forecasting application to apply a very recent moving average, for instance, last month, and to not consider …

  • What is the Future of Forecasting?

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    This article covers what I think is the future of forecasting.

    Introduction
    I was recently asked what I saw as the future state of forecasting.
    Our References for This Article
    If you want to see our references for this article and other related Brightwork articles, see this link.
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    My Projection
    My view is that I don’t see any of the topical items (AI/ML, Big Data, demand sensing, new forecasting applications that keep popping up, and other major discussion points) having very much of an impact on forecasting practice. I see forecasting departments hopping …

  • How Accurate is DDMRP's Explanation of Forecasting?

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    A big part of DDMRP is its proponents stating that critics don’t understand DDMRP.
    In this article, we analyze what a DDMRP proponent has to say about forecasting.

    Introduction
    The following article, Forecasts, one of DDMRP’s best friends, was shared on LinkedIn and was written by David Villalobos on July 16, 2020.
    See our references for this article and related articles at this link.
    Chad Smith gave it the following comment.

    Therefore, it can be considered an approved explanation of how DDMRP views forecasting.
    The Best Freind of DDMRP?
    Yes, one of its best friends. Perhaps …