Search Results for: forecasting

  • Test Results: Quarterly Versus Monthly Forecasting Buckets

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    This test was performed to test a common proposal by customers that smaller forecasting buckets lead to higher forecast accuracy.
    This test was performed with time-based forecasting disaggregation to enable an apple to apple comparison.

    Introduction
    It is common for companies to consider moving towards a weekly statistical forecasting bucket for supply chain management. I recently came upon a company that had already moved towards weekly forecasting planning buckets. I brought up the topic of monthly forecasting planning buckets, and they asked me why I suggested that. In my previous Test Results from Monthly Versus Weekly Forecasting …

  • How to Understand Test Results: Monthly Versus Weekly Forecasting Buckets

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … topic of monthly forecasting planning buckets, and they asked me why I suggested moving to monthly forecasting.. In fact, at most companies I have worked in, the supply chain forecast planning bucket has been monthly. Interestingly, many companies that are on monthly forecasting buckets move of discussion moving to weekly forecasting buckets.
    Background and Research into Weekly Forecasting Versus Monthly Forecasting
    When I went to find research on the question of weekly versus monthly forecasting in a research database that I use, I could not find an article on this topic. I looked under “weekly versus monthly forecasting,” “forecasting planning …

  • How do Complex Forecasting Methods Stack Up?

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    History shows some interesting insights as to complex methods.
    There are frequent misunderstandings regarding forecastability, which leads to the misuse of naive methods.

    Introduction to Complex Forecasting Methods
    Selecting the right forecasting methods is a critical component of forecasting. You will learn why sophisticated forecasting methods tend to be overestimated and how to choose the right level of complexity.
    See our references for this article and related articles at this link.
    Misunderstanding Forecastability
    Individuals and companies and have a great tendency to overestimate forecastability. For challenging to forecast products, there is an interpretation that they can be overcome …

  • How to Understand Gartner's Mistake on Big Data Forecasting

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    This article by Gartner makes several fallacious statements about forecasting and Big Data.
    We analyze the problems in Gartner’s understanding of forecasting.

    *Note, the article mentioned here was a reprint of Gartner’s content by a company called BlueRidge. The article was republished, making it challenging to determine if the material was created by BlueRidge or by Gartner. It was the objective of BlueRidge to make it seem that its content was Gartners’. Therefore, the statements below are from BlueRidge, not from Gartner. I would suggest that Gartner not allows companies to “republish” their research as it …

  • Our Book on Software Forecasting Parameters

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … and the knowledge transferred to the forecast planners.
    Understand the importance of being able to evaluate and review the forecast parameters externally.
    Understand the importance of the assignment between the resulting Forecast Profiles (that are the combination of a forecast model with parameters) to the forecasted items.
    Learn how some forecasting applications allow direct manipulation of forecast parameters like alpha beta gamma and others and how other forecasting applications internally determine the parameters.
    Learn about specific statistical forecasting models that use no externally determined parameters regardless of the application used.

    Buy Now
    A Book Based in Reality
    The book provides …

  • Our Books on Forecasting

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … Forecasting Software
    What the Book is About
    This is a book that show comparisons of different functionality in a number of forecasting application. This book covers statistical forecasting, consensus forecasting and collaborative forecasting. This is one of the only books to compare different applications in order to fully explain how forecasting functionality can be leveraged. (see more)

    Promotions Forecasting: Techniques of Forecast Adjustment in Software
    What the Book is About
    Promotions are a constant in most consumer products companies among many others. Performing promotions forecasting effectively means not only leveraging application functionality, but also doing the right things offline in …

  • How to Understand Aggregated Statistical Forecasting in SAP DP

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … for personal benefit. Furthermore, SAP pays off all IT analysts — who have the same concern for accuracy as SAP. Not one of these entities will disclose their pro-SAP financial bias to their readers. 

    Introduction
    I have evaluated SAP APO Demand Planner’s (DP) capability to perform attributed based aggregate forecasting. For those interested in understanding what attribute based aggregate forecasting is, please see this article.
    Attribute-based aggregate forecasting is probably the most important advance to statistical forecasting in the past few years. Attribute-based forecasting is a specific design related to how the system deals with data that …

  • How to Understand Forecasting in SAP SuccessFactors

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    We cover the forecasting functionality in SuccessFactors.
    Why the SF forecasting functionality is so interesting and the implications of using it.

    Introduction
    SuccessFactors is an HR/HCM application. It is a relatively recent acquisition on the part of SAP, a SaaS-based application that was original to be managed as an independent company but has since been moved into SAP’s Cloud Division. It is considered one of SAP’s leading SaaS applications. SuccessFactors could be regarded as a defense acquisition as SAP has been losing deals in the HR/HCM space to WorkDay – even at the upper …

  • Our Book on Combining Sales and Statistical Forecasting

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Sales and Statistical Forecasting Combined

    What The Book Covers
    When companies have forecasting problems, and typically these problems are explained as separate spheres. Therefore problems with statistical forecasting and then problems with sales forecasting. It teaches both statistical forecasting methods as well as sales forecasting methods. The focus is on statistical forecasting and sales forecasting methods, and then how to connect these methods coherently.
    This is one of the few books that focuses on how to integrate sales with statistical forecasting and is the only book that focuses on all of its attention on this one topic.
    Buy Now
    A …

  • Our Book on Effective Promotions Forecasting

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … links out to the Brightwork Research & Analysis site, where supporting articles allow readers to get into more detail on topics that interest them.
    Case Studies
    The book also contains case studies of how various forecasting techniques were used on different projects.
    Chapters

    Chapter 1: Introduction
    Chapter 2 Where Demand Planning Fits within the Supply Chain Planning Footprint
    Chapter 3: Statistical Forecasting Explained
    Chapter 4: Why Attribute-Based Forecasting is the Future of Statistical Forecasting
    Chapter 5: The Statistical Forecasting Data Layer
    Chapter 6: Removing Demand History and Outliers
    Chapter 7: Consensus Based Forecasting Explained
    Chapter 8: Collaborative Forecasting Explained
    Chapter