Search Results for: forecasting

  • Brightwork Explorer How to Access Forecast Promotion Management

    … is directed at customers and what people typically think about when they think of a promotion.
    Sales Promotions: These are promotions directed by the producer to a supply chain partner.
    Trade Promotions: Promotions directed towards a retailer or wholesaler are referred to as trade promotions.

    About Promotions Management
    Generally, promotional forecasting is not a significant focus of forecasting books, forecasting classes, or statistical forecasting. However, promotions can be a potent influence on demand and a significant factor in reducing forecast accuracy when unaccounted for in-demand history. For those who do not work in the guts of marketing or forecasting

  • Brightwork Explorer How to Access Forecast Forecastability Measurement

    Executive Summary

    Forecastability can be accessed by using Brightwork Explorer.
    This article discusses this future option.

    Introduction
    Companies struggle with segmenting their database in a way that allows them to allocate their planning labor effectively. They also often don’t know or have a mathematical measurement for how forecastable their dataset is. The concept of forecastability is how inherently a dataset is with statistical methods. Many people think that more challenging to forecast datasets are more advanced forecasting methods when the opposite is the case. Furthermore, most companies’ forecastability is getting worse as marketing continually adds new products to the …

  • Brightwork Explorer How to Access Weighted Monetary Forecast Error Calculation

    … type (MAPE, MAD, RMSE, etc..), these methods are generally ineffective in helping companies improve their forecast accuracy.
    This article will explain why and why the Brightwork Explorer contains a far more direct and effective alternative.
    The Common Problems in Measuring Forecast Accuracy
    A primary reason for this is that most forecasting software is designed for viewing the time series graphically and either make manual adjustments or fit various forecasting models. The design orientation of all of the forecasting applications that we have worked with and reviewed over the years is not specifically around forecast error determination. This means measuring forecast …

  • How to Replace Best Fit in SAP DP?

    Executive Summary

    What is the Dirty Secret of SAP DP?
    Why Replace Your Best Fit Functionality in DP?
    Operationalizing the Brightwork Explorer Best Fit to SAP DP

    Introduction
    SAP DP is a popular forecasting application. However, it has a secret which we will cover in this article.
    SAP DP’s Dirty Secret
    Its best fit functionality runs into complications when running in production. SAP and SAP consultants that work for consulting companies hide this fact from customers, and this has been going on for decades and a combination of ignorance and lying on the part of SAP and SAP consulting …

  • The Evidence that Diversity Does Not Improve Innovation

    … A Virtuous Cycle (Vol 47 No. 1 2015 pp 1-7)
    Diversity of Systematic Innovation Thinking (IMP Journal, Volume 9, No 1, 2015)
    Board Diversity and Innovation Performance in Malaysia (Int J Business Governance and Ethics Vol 12, No 3 2017)
    R & D Collaborations: Is Diversity Enhancing Innovation Performance? (Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 118 – May 1, 2017)
    Diversity is Strategy: The Effect of R&D Team Diversity on Innovation (R&D Management, Volume 47 (2) Mar 1, 2017)
    Driver or Inhibitor of Innovation? (Kybernetes, Volume 47, 10 – Feb 5, 2018)
    Does Cultural Diversity of Migrant Employees Affect Innovation …

  • How to Understand Error Checking Variable Forecast Planning Buckets

    Executive Summary

    Planning buckets selecting should be a tested setting in forecasting systems, but normally is not.
    We cover how to set the forecasting planning bucket.

    Video Introduction: How to Understand Error Checking Variable Forecast Planning Buckets
    https://youtu.be/kdzHbNtnjac
    Text Introduction (Skip if You Watched the Video)
    Some companies forecast using a weekly planning bucket, others monthly. However, what is rarely done by companies is testing the changes in forecast accuracy based upon the planning bucket. The concept of “responsiveness” has resulted in many companies using a planning bucket that reduces their statistical forecast methods’ effectiveness. You will …

  • How to Best Understand Measuring the Unconstrained Forecast

    … makes no difference) substitutes the 60 units it is short for product ABC in August for product XYZ in August.
    The forecasting process is held accountable not for how well it is forecasting, but for how well it is forecasting within the constraints of the company. But the forecasting process should not be held accountable for the company’s constraints. What the company can fulfill is a question for supply planning.

    What are the problems with this added scenario?

    Product ABC keeps its inaccurate demand record of 160 units.
    Product XYZ has 60 units added to its demand history …

  • How to Create a Functional Relationship with Service Levels

    … database at companies has expanded often explosively, a situation largely driven by marketing departments. Marketing seems to believe that the way to add value to the company is to offer as many varieties of products as possible. But product proliferation spreads demand across ever more items, increasing the difficulty of forecasting individual item demands. Often the product database is littered with slow-moving items that Marketing still insists are critical to continue stocking. Marketing, of course, is not held accountable for dead stock, or for service-level; rather it is pursuing its silo objectives.
    Now there is no guarantee that …

  • The Reality of Machine Learning Versus the Hype of ML

    … even exist within companies to perform ML? ML requires multiple data streams, and it is an inherently multi-variable approach to pattern recognition.
    His comment about bringing silos together to obtain multivariate data is right on target.
    The Story of Causal Factor Inclusion in MCA Solutions
    There was a vendor called MCA Solutions. They created an application for service parts planning and are now owned by PLC.
    The story that was explained to me by several of their consultants was that customers would rate them based on how many variables they had space to perform causal forecasting. So they had

  • A Study into the Accuracy of SAP

    Forecasting
    The following is a straight average of all of the items listed in the table. This is a record of statements and predictions made over decades. In statistical forecasting, the historical forecast error is typically used to estimate future forecast error.
    Following this precedent, it should be considered a useful accuracy percentage to apply to future predictions by SAP.
    What should be clear is that SAP has a long-term issue with accuracy. This is the only published study in SAP’s accuracy. It is not generally understood how low SAP’s accuracy is by those that work …