Search Results for: forecasting

  • Does Brightwork Have an Axe to Grind with SAP?

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … reason for this is that these proponents make money from SAP, and therefore are unconcerned with what is true, as what is true could potentially reduce their income.
    The Ultimate Test of Bias: Accuracy
    At Brightwork, we consider the bias to be incredibly valuable. We have written on bias in forecasting in many articles, including Understanding Forecasting Bias.
    We have explained how SAP spreads money to IT media entities, and through outsourcing, its consulting receives highly biased recommendations on the part of the large consulting companies. And that SAP would not accept these recommendations if it did not allow consulting …

  • The Real Reason for Under Armour SAP's S/4HANA Problems

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … into the topic of forecasting.

    Under Armour uses SAP DP for forecasting.
    As most people know who have worked in ECC, ECC has forecasting functionality, but it is cumbersome to configure that most SAP customers do not use it.
    On SAP customers, either Excel or other systems are used for forecasting.

    However, let us step back for a moment.
    This is supposedly a comment related to S/4HANA, which has not been enhanced in the forecasting area. And even if it had, Under Armour still uses SAP DP to forecast. So why does this quotation exist in a case study …

  • How Good is Taiichi Ohno's Book on Toyota Production System?

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … at least $55 annually to maintain your Costco membership.
    “Costco was the first company to grow from zero to $3 billion in sales in under six years.” – Wikipedia
    In the US, at least, JIT and Lean principles are not being followed for home food purchases.
    Quite the opposite, in fact — forecasting and refrigeration rules the day.
    Stable Production Schedules and Flexible Manufacturing?
    One of JIT/Lean consultants’ standard proposals is that TPS is an example of flexible manufacturing.
    This quote from Ohno illustrates this concept.
    “Toyota naturally makes production schedules — like other companies. Just because we produce just in time …

  • Draft Table of Contents for SAM Research

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … all IT analysts — who have the same concern for accuracy as SAP. Not one of these entities will disclose their pro-SAP financial bias to their readers. 

    Research Intent
    The intent of this research is the following:

    Overall Level of the Study: The study is to provide a background on forecasting made understandable to a beginning audience (that is readable by executives and members of IT who in most cases have never used SAM software).
    Differences with Previous Similar Work: To provide a level of explanation not found in previous similar work.
    Explaining Foundational SAM Topics: To cover foundational topics …

  • How to Understand DDMRP as Yet Another Repackaging of JIT and Lean

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … System
    A JIT inventory system is simply a method that applies JIT. Any supply planning or MRP/ERP system can be made to operate under JIT principles. This typically results in the system being set to work on consumption-based planning using methods like reorder points. JIT is opposed to forecasting philosophically, considering it too unreliable. The problem is that while this may apply to a stocking level or stocking position, it is impossible to apply consumption-based planning in all circumstances. And the longer the lead time.
    Misinformation on Inventory Conceptually Because of Lean or JIT
    Lean is just …

  • Rating ASUG's Inability to Challenge SAP's Predictions

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … is easy to make. However, it is curious when the person making the accusation has an easily traceable income stream to SAP. A verifiable income stream is the most predictive element to forecast bias. For example, the sales forecast is the least accurate input of all the inputs to the forecasting process. I cover this in detail in the book Sales and the Statistical Forecast Combined.
    The accusation of bias is easy to make. However, it is something else to prove bias. Bias means that what a person or entity says and what they predict is consistently inaccurate in either …

  • How to Understand the Deloitte S/4HANA Case Study

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … well.
    More Promises on Moving Away from Microsoft Excel
    “Deloitte hopes that a shift to a fit-for-purpose system like S/4, which comes with integrated analytics, planning and forecasting capabilities, will help its finance staff to move away from a cultural dependence on Microsoft Excel spreadsheets. Bray said that the company currently has a reporting catalogue of more than 6,000 spreadsheets in the USA alone, and “I know we have over 3,000 reports in the UK too”, he added.”
    This has been promised on many occasions in the past. Yet Excel continues to be universally …

  • Brightwork Explorer for Tuning Forecast and MRP Systems

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    Forecasting and MRP systems universally require tuning to run properly.
    The Brightwork Explorer is designed to make these systems more usable and controllable.

    Introduction
    The Brightwork Explorer makes forecasting systems and MRP systems run better.
    Specialized for Measuring Forecast Error
    Most forecasting systems are designed to produce forecasts, not to measure error. They have basic error measurement, but that is not the same as purpose-building to measure forecast error specifically.
    Brightwork Explorer is perfect for measuring any forecast error.
    This includes:

    Statistical forecasting in different time buckets.
    Statistical forecasts from top-down techniques.
    Statistical forecasts using different …

  • The Strange Changes with the Count of Fiori Apps

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … benefit if customers buy S/4 or do not buy S/4. That is an important consideration. Also, unlike anyone who works for Bluefin, IBM, etc… as an independent, I can write what I believe to be true. I covered the topic of forecast bias in the book Supply Chain Forecasting Software and included it again in this LinkedIn post. And it is incredible to me, knowing what is known about forecast bias, that we don’t seem to discuss preference when considering what people and companies propose.
    Now, NetWeaver was something at the beginning related to rewriting parts of …

  • How IDG Works to Provide Inaccurate IT Information

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … This was a change in policy regarding Oracle and extending their relationship. SAP did not want this change in a policy known. The article we found on this was again……curiously short at 144 words. 
    Introducing The IT Media Automation Article Algorithm (ITMAAA)!
    We have been investigating machine learning for forecasting. ML has a lot of marketing puffery attached to it. And you don’t need to run an ML algorithm to automate tasks. The problem of forecasting is much more complicated than IT media article writing.
    Let’s look at the algorithm for publishing on an IT subject.

    Step …