Search Results for: forecasting

  • How to Understand the Availability Maximization Spare Parts Management Method

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … provides the largest incremental increase in service for the minimum cost.” (570)
    The Poisson, the Normal and the Compound Poisson Distribution Assumptions, and the Problem of Specification[3]
    To develop the probabilities of different demands for different items for use in EADS and EDL, it becomes necessary to choose a probability distribution that will closely fit the future expected demand. The Normal distribution is used when the demand is sufficient in volume such that the law of large numbers allows for accurate forecasting. (The graphical representations of the Normal distribution can be found in Graph 2, which is up …

  • The Problem with Milton Friedman – Compendium

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … which is the area where Friedman achieved fame, is so esoteric and deliberately obtuse that it is nowhere near as applicable as many people think. Furthermore, the emphasis of economics over the past century has been to move further and further way from the real economy and focusing on advanced forecasting (which while containing a great deal of math can’t seem to predict the most apparent asset bubbles). Thus, while Friedman’s academic work may or may not have been good (for non-academics it makes no difference as Friedman was not publishing research for any applicability, but simply …

  • CRM's Real ROI: The Problem with CRM Salesforce Does Not Want You to Know

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … of the data quality is almost always disappointing. This is a greatly deemphasized topic by both consulting companies. Particularly the major consulting companies and the CRM software vendors, as if clients knew the real average quality of sales information in CRM systems, would put a serious damper on CRM software sales.
    CRM and Forecasting
    CRM started as a contact management system and has since grown in many directions. CRM often has so many different attributes that it can be difficult to say definitively what CRM is.

    CRM was never developed for forecasting.
    IT is often used for forecasting. The forecasting

  • Why SAP Leonardo Seems So Fake

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … build out its backend. However, outside of analytics, SAP does not have anything else that matches what I see described here, aside from their acquisition of PLAT.ONE, which is an acquisition and was very small at the time it was acquired. SAP has never had anything predictive outside of forecasting. In forecasting, they have SAP DP, which would not be useful in this overall design. The same applies to IBP, which I covered in SAP’s IBP Open Questions and Opportunities.
    So SAP is starting from scratch there. SAP has no prominence in machine learning, and while I searched …

  • How SAP Mislead Analysts on Q1 2017 Earnings Call

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … performed the acquisition.

    On IoT and So On
    “Our internet-of-things business is already the leader with Goldwind Science & Technologies, and Energy [indiscernible] selecting ASAP in the first quarter. We are accelerating internet-of-things innovation, including predictive maintenance, logistics, autonomous payments, quality assurance, anti-counterfeiting and industrial securities. We are also focused on machine-learning, which we believe takes the work out of workflow. Our first wave of machine-learning enabled application is already commercially available today. Examples include invoice and payment matching, predictive recruiting, intelligent sales forecasting, sales discount approvals and data-driven renewal management to name

  • The Toyota Indus Motor Company S/4HANA Case Study

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … The Scope of S/4HANA Implemented: SD, MM, PP (Simple Logistics), QM, PS, FI-CO (Simple Finance), PM, BW, and Fiori.
    Implementing Consultancy: IBM
    Implementation Duration: 10 Months. Running live for the past six months.
    Status: Went Live on October
    Customization: Many Customizations (many for PP in the areas of Forecasting, Planning, Allocation (ATP), Kanban, Heijunka
    Investment Decision: Our company intends to keep making the system more solid regarding performance and developing more in Fiori Apps.

    Perspective on the Implementation from a Consultant Who Worked on the Project
    Muhammad Ali Lozada is a consultant who worked on the S/4HANA …

  • Financial Advisors – Pez Dispensers but for Falsehoods

    ByPrimary Researcher

    Executive Summary

    Financial Advisors and How They Lie to their Customers
    Using Corrupt Sources of Information versus proven Resources

    Be careful about opening the mouth of a financial advisor, stock broker and so on. Unlike a Pez, that is not candy that is about to come out of their mouths.
    Introduction
    When I look back, it is in utter amazement at the number of false statements I have been subjected to by financial advisors and even friends. It is an important conclusion when one understands that almost no one, including the experts, understands economics or forecasting. Even the highest status …

  • Why the Standard Analysis of Japanese Manufacturing is Incomplete

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … any part of our system is not tolerated (individual tactical changes may be recommended). The rule is straightforward, companies have a right to form co-operatives in the form of corporations, but employees have no right to form co-operatives.

    #6.) Do the Japanese Automotive Companies Have an Advantage in Forecasting?
    I came across the following quotation in the book “The Fortune Sellers,” which describes how Japanese manufacturers tend to forecast. This book primarily focuses on how forecasts are oversold in many areas (economics, finance, weather, etc..) versus their actual demonstrated ability to predict the future.
    Japanese auto manufacturers’ strategy …

  • Why Magical Ideas Are More Appealing than Standard Supply Planning

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … modified when it’s too late to place a bet. Vegas bookmakers require you to solidify your bet before the game starts.
    Why Dynamic Safety Stock Is Not Held
    While many people attempted to list the standard safety stock formulas, I think what should be discussed is why the dynamic safety stock calculation is not used in companies. Rather than spending more time reiterating involved safety stock formulas, the question needs to be asked: “why.”
    I believe the answer lies with the high forecast error that most companies have. Because most companies have a problem mastering statistical forecasting systems …

  • Is S/4HANA Actually Designed for the Cloud?

    ByPrimary Researcher

    … tends to be low compared to the on-premises model.
    Cloud solutions provide lower sales orientation and offer online trials of their software, which means that clients have a better idea of what they are buying than on-premises implementations. I cover in this article and the book Supply Chain Forecasting Software. That most companies select the wrong forecasting applications for a variety of reasons but the major ones being that they generally don’t understand the software they are buying very well. And are misled by large consulting companies and companies like SAP and Oracle into buying weak applications …